Monday, November 15, 2010

How I see it

I'm sorry if it seems like I'm not engaged. These issues are very intense, potentially explosive, and quite controversial. And that's why this site is about the truth. I could say something every day about the latest "news" or did you hear what so-and-so said. But that's not how I operate. It's been a time for reflection and deliberation for me and I wish more people would do that more often. I think we'd have a better understanding of things if we thought more and talked less.

Regardless, now 14 days after the fact, here's what I see:
  1. City council won. Yes, that's right. TCU did not win. City council won because they got what they wanted - continued control over the library issue. I tried to warn everybody about how this outcome would just create more dysfunction within our community, but evidently not enough people saw it this way. Just wait until you see this go on a few more weeks/months and once city council acts, or doesn't, then we'll get to see TCU hyperventilate and act, based on city council, and the game that cleaves this community will continue. Remember, I warned you. Several times.
  2. No one at TCU has a plan, a clue, or even a thoughtful idea to move us toward a solution. It's just more of the same "get your financial house in order" nonsense. This is nonsense because there are no actual suggestions on how to do that. I'm sorry, but gutting the few egregious pensions is a drop in the bucket and, while a nice political gesture (TCU's stock in trade - all show, no go), does not fund the library. The devil is in the details, as the old saying goes. To that end, there needs to be a real plan.
  3. There is a real plan. Clint Meyer and I submitted a plan back in early May. Our plan, the one we call "Option 3" and "Option 3a" is not rocket science. It's across-the-board cuts that balance the budget and saves the services, if not all jobs. Yes I know others have suggested across-the-board cuts, but they listened to the city council and the city manager talk about $22.6 million "deficit" and so they argued for a 7-10% cut. It seemed logical, though it wasn't. The city manager just sat there and repeated, "That won't work" without saying why. He still hasn't. Why won't it work? Check out the numbers: the actual deficit is over $82 million! Our plan is backed up with numbers, the city's financial data, and a rationale for action. It spares no one, but it destroys no one either. No one else has produced such a plan, to my knowledge. It's very tough medicine, at around 25% cuts per department, based on where we were in May, but it's the only path forward and the only path to demonstrate good faith to the community. This is something entirely lost on the council majority and the city manager. Until that broken faith is restored, we are lost. And eventually, even the police department will be cut dramatically because they'll be the only ones left.
  4. The Ed Kempen "plan", which really is only a wish, will either be ignored by city council or if it's seen in concert with the 15,000+ Yes voters, not to mention the other 1,546 possible Yes voters on the other proposals (the difference between total ballots cast and the total number of Yes and No votes cast on Proposal 1), it might yet have some political influence, though I don't see it moving a fourth vote. We'll see.
  5. The past is not to be ignored unless we wish to continue in this broken manner. I'm not arguing for placing blame. There is no value in that. But the past is where we can clearly see the errors that led us here, the obfuscation that hid the truth from us, and why we must act with full knowledge of the past to fix the present.
  6. The people behind the bogus proposals, whether TCU, the Troy Tea Party, Frank Howrylak, Bob Gosselin, or all of them, stole the election by subverting democracy and they should be ostracized from the conversation. They have no place at the table. They are not interested in dialogue (they continue to block me from their Facebook page to avoid the truths I present). No one should be surprised by this. Not now.
  7. Martin Howrylak's letter was not honest, his timing was no accident, and his previous commitment to me (and Clint) about supporting a library-only initiative "as long as it was below one mill" was a commitment we reported to library supporters and relied upon. Martin denies this, tells me ether I misunderstood him or he did not make himself clear. I could buy that, except that Robin Beltramini informs me that he told her the same thing and has publicly stated this in the recent past. So I'm not wrong in understanding Martin's artifice. I like Martin, personally, although I know that puts me in the minority in this town. He's a fascinating character, has a firm grasp on more things that people give him credit for, but he's not being forthright here and I don't respect that.
  8. It's inevitable that the police department will take real financial hits - at some point. The fiscal situation is dire and the truth is that our Option 3 or something very close to it is going to be the only path to getting the budget balanced.
  9. And lastly, thank you Rhonda Hendrickson for your efforts.
Look, there is a lot of blame to go around on both sides of the issue. I don't care about that now. I only care about getting a plan that begins to solve our city's problems and sets us up for the future. We've put such a plan on the table and it's high time people actually read it. It's not a gift to any "side" in this argument because while it hits the city hard, requires strong leadership to push the unions into cuts they don't want to absorb (not to mention city administrators who appear to be the actual main obstacle to this solution), it also demonstrates that this fiscal crisis is very real and will require additional tax support from the community to back-fill the significant loss in revenue that appears will continue for another couple of years. This is real. Mr. Szerlag is not lying to us, even if he's done a very poor job of communicating it and chosen a cynical political strategy (threatening the library/museum/nature center) to make his point. If you want the city you live in to survive and be positioned to thrive once the economy recovers, you had better look closely at real facts, not the useless nonsense of the uninformed, like TCU, who act from emotion instead of data. Both sides must now face the truth of the reality of the mess and the necessity of honest communications. We all need to pitch in. Please start by reading our Plan.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hello Barry,

Enjoy your plan, simply 'cause it actually uses numbers to make its case.

Can't say I agree much with todays post, but hey, when everyone thinks alike, things like the bay of pigs happen.

In any case, I write today since you are a numbers guy.

I was going over the "Trends and Summaries (35 - 63)" under the budget section of the city website.
(http://www.troymi.gov/budget/2010-2011/035-063%20Trends%20and%20Summaries.pdf)

I do not believe the taxable value graph agrees with the tax revenue graph (pg 42 & 43)

The 2.8 residential,+ 1.2 comercial, +.4 indust, +.4 personal = 4.8 billion comes out much higher @ 9.4 mill then the $35x10^6 revenue reported.

Things get a little better when one treats the industrial and personal as subsets of the others.

Any Ideas?

My reason for looking at this?
I wasn't happy with some of the nasty stuff said before nov 2 or the "soreloserman" behavior afterwards. I'm not talking about the TCU, the tea party or affiliates. I decided to put out my own plan. Its called "put up or shut up."

We were told it would cost us a "measley" 2 dollars a week to keep the lib open. Approx 50% were for prop 1. So if every yea voter were pay $2 to cover themselves, $2 to cover the nay voters, another $2 to cover comercial/business, it totals to a paltry $6/wk. (although you may want to toss in another buck for those yea voters that only talk the talk)

The yea voters could get thier independant lib. and keep it to themselves privately (or if they want those state and fed dollars, open the doors the public)

Barry said...

Put up or shut up plan? Fascinating. Welcome to the party. Both Clint and I (btw, Clint is by far the real numbers guy - I tend to be more intuitive, but until I see numbers I always think I'm just being wishful so it's a good combo) have always felt that if we put a plan out there, it would trigger a lot of discussion if not criticism. The lack of criticism has been surprising and given us the sense that we've put something undeniable on the table. It's not rocket science or real hardcore finance, just basic accounting and common sense. But you have to start at the beginning and until you face the fact the actual deficit is north of $83 million, you're just spinning wheels. We really just followed the numbers where they went, but we know there are still questions, even mysteries regarding same. So we're intrigued by your ideas and think you may be able to shed additional light on our efforts. We would like to discuss them with you directly. Please feel free to contact me directly by viewing my profile and selecting the email link. We've never been about credit or even saving the library exclusively, but taking an entire city-wide budget approach for the good of all parties. I will protect your anonymity if that's important to you.

Regarding the good of all parties, perhaps you are not in agreement with my TCU comments. I wish you would be specific in your disagreement. Not because I wish to argue the point, but I do wish to discuss it. I'm disgusted with their denial and evident dismissal of their tactics as unimportant. I have little patience for deceit. But as I said, there is much blame to go around. The entire thing is a scandal, in my view. Perhaps we can discuss that in more detail.

marv rein said...

Comment only about the Bay of Pigs,,,at least 5 people from Troy were held POW.
the supporters/ people went with Woodside,,when TROY Baptist was brought out.